Last year was the third year out of 4 that the AFC South sent two teams to the playoffs, but each had troubling results once the month of January rolled on through. The Colts (12-4) lost an overtime thriller to the Chargers 23-17, and my beloved Titans (13-3), the top seed in the AFC, got upset by the born-again Baltimore Ravens 13-10. But the 2009 season looks to write a better ending to a great season than 2008, or 2007.

The division champion was Tennessee, who started last season off unbelievably hot, rolling to 10-0 record, outscoring opponents 322-121 in those games. They hammered runner-up Indianapolis in Week 8 on Monday Night, 31-21. The Colts got their stride mid-season, after starting 3-4, they won 9 straight, even with one of the victories coming over the resting Tennessee Titans in Week 17. One of the best games during the season including Indy and the Houston Texans, who broke to the .500 mark last year at 8-8. They played it close last year, going 5-4 in games decided by 7 points or less. Rounding out the division was the Jacksonville Jaguars, having a rough 4-12 season, all started by a tough loss at Tennessee in Week 1.

1. Tennessee Titans

I know that everyone is thinking one of two things when seeing this: a)I’m crazy, this is never going to happen, or b)I’m only doing this because the Titans are my favorite team. Well, they are my favorite team, but I’m not going crazy. This team has really gelled and I think is poised to prove that 2008 wasn’t just a mirage. Led by a strong duo of running backs in Chris Johnson (1228 yards, 9 touchdowns in ’08) and LenDale White (773 yards, 15 TD) they can, if I may use a UFC term, ground and pound their opponents this year.

Even with losses on the other side of the ball, the Titans look to stop opponents. The loss of Haynesworth is going to be tough to overcome, but with Vanden Bosch being in a contract year, he should step it up, hoping to be a top ten defense once again. Tied in with the defense for Tennessee is the special teams, led by kicker Rob Bironas, who just signed a 4 year deal, worth 12 million dollars. Having him back will give the Titans added weapons in a late, close type game.

The schedule is very difficult. The opening weeks of the season include going to Pittsburgh on the first Thursday night of the season, and playing Houston the next week. Before the bye week (Week 7), the Titans play the likes of New England at NE, Houston, and Indy. However, towards the end, the only major bump in the schedule is a Week 13 matchup with non other than the Indianapolis Colts. The schedule lightens up with St. Louis, and the final season of the year going out to Seattle.

2. Houston Texans

To some this would be a major surprise pick, but not to many. Sports Illustrated has them as winning the South, with Tennessee third, Indy second. The game that will be the true determining factor is a Week 2 match-up at Tennessee, with the winner trying to fight for the top of the division, along with Indianapolis. Offensively, the Texans were third in total offense last year, vastly improving from only being the 14th best offense in the NFL in 2007. One of the other major keys for Houston is at quarterback, and keeping the leader Matt Schaub healthy for an entire season, which has been hindered already by a sprained left ankle.

Defensively, the problems were one of the major reasons the Texans sunk early on last year. They gave up a troubling 24.6 points/game last year, 6th worst in the NFL. In the beginning of 2008, they dropped the first four games, giving up an average of 32.5 ppg in those games, while allowing 334.2 yards in the losses. The new defensive scheme for the Texans may take a few weeks to adjust to, being a very young defense in a new style, a more aggressive style.

(For more on the Texans, check out my other post, Texans On The Rise, Looking To Playoffs In 2009)

3. Indianapolis Colts

Looking to rebound from a crushing last year in the Divisional playoffs, the Colts look to rebound, and keep their eyes on the playoffs for 7th straight season. This year could be very difficult to keep that streak alive with the quality of teams in the South. The 2008 season included another January disappointment, losing in overtime to San Diego 23-17, after finishing the regular season 12-4, good enough for second place in the South, behind Tennessee. The 31-21 loss to the Titans on Monday night of Week 8 turned their season around, winning the last 9 of the regular season. They also scored 23 or more points 7 of the last 9 games.

However, one of the gaping holes for the Colts is the run game. Indy had a difficult time running the ball with consistency last year. “Our ability to rush the football was completely unacceptable last year. It was more of a miracle that we were able to disguise the problem so much and go so far and do so much with it being such a problem.” owner Jim Irsay said of the situation. Neither running back (Addai and Rhodes) eclipsed the 600 yard mark for the season. Compare that to Tennessee, which Johnson and White both ran for 750 yards, with Johnson going over 1,000.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

After suffering a tough 4-12 season last year, the Jaguars look to be improved and compete for the division. However, with the quality of teams in the South, the Jags are going to have to wait another year at least. Even with getting key improvements, such as Torry Holt and Tra Thomas, this is going to be a rough year. 2008 was supposed to be a great year for Jacksonville, but went downhill, starting with a tough loss at Tennessee in Week 1.

Offensively, the Jags came back to earth from a great 2007 season last year. They placed in the bottom half of the NFL in the key offensive stats overall. Jones-Drew is going to get all of the carries this year with lifelong, now ex-Jag Fred Taylor going to New England. To have success this year, Jacksonville is going to have to establish the run with Jones-Drew, and then get David Garrard to have consistency through the air. Garrard had a tough time through the air last year, throwing 15 TDs, with 13 INTs mixed in there.

Wreaking havoc on other teams within the AFC South for the last few years without playoff success, the Texans look to stop that trend in 2009. With the key parts from an 8-8 season returning for the new year, everything looks to be in place. A tough start to 2008 threw the plans of a playoff berth out the window, starting out 0-4. Their spotty defense was the main reason they dropped the first four, they were 22nd overall in total defense last year.

Offensively, they return the always speedy Steve Slaton, who rushed for 1,282 yards in his opening year, getting to the endzone a total of 10 times. He is a threat outside of rushing also, catching 50 passes for 377 yards in ’08. When the ball is going through the air, it is going to most likely be coming from Matt Schaub, who is coming off a decent 2008 season, in which he threw for 3,000+ yards. The only major problems lurking include the fact that he is fragile, and has had a tough time in the past trying to stay healthy for an entire 16 game season so far in his career. “We’re ready to take that next step. A lot of guys are in their 4th and 5th years in [Kubiak's] system. It’s time to make that jump,” Schaub said. The other issue that is brought up is his TD:INT ratio, last season the threw 15 TDs, but also threw 10 balls to the other team. Something to help that ratio improve is having one of the best wideouts at his disposal in Andre Johnson, catching 115 passes last year, for 8 TDs and 1,575 yards.

The one thing that may bring this team down however is the defense, having a tough time stopping opposing offenses, giving up 21 points in 12 of their 16 games last year. The 16-game total of 394 points allowed was one of the worst in the NFL, ranking 27th out of the 32 teams. Mario Williams has to hold down the fort in the trenches for the defense, having another great year in ’08, with 12 sacks, 7th most in the NFL last year. The Texans added Antonio Smith from Arizona to help Williams at the DE position. The linebacking core looks to be improving, led by DeMeco Ryans, a quick middle linebacker that recorded 112 tackles last year. “I don’t want to come off the field at any cost. This is my defense–no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Our performance reflects my leadership,” Ryans said of the defense.

The opening part of the schedule is not as brutal as it was last year, getting three of the first four games inside Reliant Stadium. Not many would be surprised by a 3-1 start for Houston, with wins most likely over the Jets, Jacksonville, and Oakland. The rest of the games in October don’t seem to be too much of a problem, minus the meeting at NFC champion Arizona on the 11th. The brutal part of the schedule doesn’t begin until Week 9, with games at Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Indy at home. The only saving grace is that in between the meetings at Indy and against the Titans is a bye week. The AFC south is a three horse race, with Jacksonville bringing up the rear. I could see any of the top three winning the divison and making a serious run in the playoffs.